AN AUTOMOTIVE REVOLUTION IN FAST-FORWARD MODE
Let us start at the beginning. More than 50 years ago, the core task of Automotive Refinisher was established: to deliver, through a bi-monthly journal, the very latest global trends and innovations emerging from the fast-moving theatre of automotive crash repair. At that time, change was evolutionary. Today, it is nothing short of astronomical.
The scale and complexity of transformation confronting the trade has accelerated beyond anything previously experienced. Aftermarket repair products are mutating to accommodate multiple powertrains, artificial intelligence and a myriad of external influences that are redefining how vehicles are conceived and built. This is set against an exponential increase in new vehicle model releases which, since 2018, have doubled and in some cases trebled year on year.
These game-changing disruptions are now clearly visible on the collision-repair horizon. Even the clearest crystal ball is incapable of predicting what the automotive aftermarket will look like in the next 10 to 15 years.
The USA scenario
In the United States alone, up to 17 brands are predicted to cease selling models this year. Electric start-ups are facing direct challenges from famous legacy manufacturers, with an important backdrop – most USA buyers remain wary of pure electric vehicles.
Stellantis is mired in difficulty from Chrysler to RAM, with even the Jeep division appearing to be out of step. The days of $80 000 SUVs and pick-ups (bakkies) have well and truly hit a roadblock.
The additional tariffs applied to imports have led to rapid re-thinking of what vehicles will be built in the USA – Genesis, for example, are planning to increase the number of USA built models.
Nissan’s ongoing CVT transmission and variable compression ratio engine warranty problems continue to add cost, at a time when redefinition of its relationship with Renault as well as the growth of Geely-invested ‘Horse’ adds further uncertainty.
For the USA the short-term powertrain winner is split between HEV and PHEV – BEV remains a segment that could grow in the longer term. The uncertainty lies at the very heart of today’s turmoil.
Europe implodes
In the third quarter German manufacturing industry increases its spending to prepare for the year ahead. However, in 2025 this spending was down one third compared to the same period in 2024 – and the overall production output fell 20% by year end compared to 2024. For context, 2024 was not a very good year.
This chaos is reflected across Europe as the gap between policy and product widens – the policy was to drive BEV regardless, and consumers voted with their wallets. Meanwhile European politicians have sought to be ever closer to China which resulted in apparent lack of support for the domestic manufacturers and support for China imports.
Right now, Stellantis are struggling to find reasons to keep Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Lancia and Maserati. Behind that the future of DS and even Citroën seem uncertain.
Direct taxation/penalties for domestic manufacturers continue even though the damage is profound, as the market opens up for lower cost vehicles.
China really arrives
After an internal market price war which has raged since 2022 combined with the effect of creative finance to increase the production capacity of domestic manufacturers, China is set to drench the global market with more cars and more models that we have ever seen.
The domestic market price war has purged most of the non-domestic brands, although the much-proclaimed technology advancement is not quite what it seems.
The outcome will be markets such as Europe will be dominated by Chinese brands, able to offer apparently good build quality and extensive features at prices the European automotive companies cannot match. By the time the response arrives – it will be too late.
Few spares, difficult to access repair processes and poorly integrated software access will lead to a supply only market – the car breaks, throw it away and get another. This will not only be inside China but also other parts of the world.
Software-defined vehicles set to rule
The Wall Street fast money has hopped from autonomy to SDVs. This new electronic architecture is already manifesting itself in more than 40 new BMW models, built with ultra-thin wiring looms and fully integrated control modules. Are we ready for this?
The forthcoming iX3 launch may well provide the answer.
However, SDVs are limited by the hardware capability. Even at the recent Consumer Electronics Show of 2026 many automotive electronic suppliers finally admitted over air updates will not refine vehicle performance endlessly. Perhaps 2026 will show SDV was a bit of a dead-end, like autonomy?
ADAS edges into big government
SAE define advanced driver assistance from level 0 (no aids) through to level 5 (get into the vehicle, no interaction, and it will take you to the desired destination with no human assistance).
Most vehicle manufacturers selling in Europe and North America have landed on SAE level 2, which complies with legislation and gives consumers useful features such as automatic emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, road sign recognition to limit vehicle speed, lane departure warning, lane keeping and blind spot vehicle detection.
The next step – SAE level 3 – requires geo-fencing. This enables the driver to go hands free in designated zones, provided they demonstrate the steering wheel is in their hands every few minutes. This is a much more difficult system to enable – and depends on high-capacity data transfer to as well as from the vehicle – presently via 5G.
So, for the moment, until something better than 5G arrives, most vehicle manufacturers have stopped off at SAE Level 2. Guess what’s headed to South Africa?
Stock demand falling across global markets
Stock levels are now telling their own story. In the USA, Mini is reportedly holding up to four months’ worth of unsold vehicles. China’s vast manufacturing sector is operating at around 50% capacity. Across Europe’s 12 major vehicle plants, plant utilisation is closer to 85% and in some cases 97% – but overheads and high taxation challenge profitability.
What about collision repair?
If you are beginning to feel a sense of helplessness, you are not alone.
Parts availability and sales back-up for certain models in our local markets are increasingly questionable. A glance at consumer platforms such as Hello Peter reveals the frustration of Chery owners, many visibly upset by poor service levels. This represents a new frontier in vehicle repairability – and a daunting reputational risk for body shops unable to deliver timely crash repairs.
A cautious note of optimism
Finally, on a more positive note, industry pundits are forecasting up to 30% aftermarket growth as vehicle ownership expands, particularly across emerging African economies.
The real question is how we are going to train, adapt and keep pace with this technological tsunami. In a world where God made the Earth round – so that we cannot see too far ahead – perhaps that limitation is, in some ways, a blessing.
We may just be lucky on that one.
By Ian Groat
